Fuel Supply Security — Commercial & Infrastructure

Fuel Supply Security — Australia

Strategic Intelligence Report · 7 April 2026 · C&I Executive Leadership

Sources: DCCEEW MSO Stats (2 Apr 2026) • AIP TGP Data • NRMA Weekly • IEA • Energy Minister Bowen

⚠ Crisis Mode Active ● Live Data IEA Non-Compliant HORMUZ BLOCKED

BREAKING — 7 APRIL 2026, 12:00 PM AEST

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Diesel — Sydney • hover for breakdown

— cpl

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↑ +57% from Jan 2026 · +74% from 2025 avg

Diesel Reserve — National

29 days

IEA mandate: 90 days · Deficit: −61 days

⚠ 32% of mandated level — CRITICAL

Stations Without Diesel

400+

Nationally · NSW peak: 182 · Easing slowly

Independent retailers rationed first (Tier 4)

Brent Crude (Live) • hover for details

$110/bbl

WTI: $— · AUD/USD: 0.617

↑ +71% yr/yr · 52-wk high: $119.50

Fuel Reserves vs IEA 90-Day Mandate

DCCEEW MSO · Apr 2026

Diesel CRITICAL

29 days / 90d IEA · −61d deficit

IEA

32% of mandate · Australia IEA average: 141 days

Petrol WARNING

39 days / 90d IEA · −51d deficit

43% of mandate

Jet Fuel CRITICAL

30 days / 90d IEA · −60d deficit

33% of mandate

⚠ DCCEEW NOTE

Figures include fuel aboard inbound tankers. Usable onshore stock is significantly less. Source: DCCEEW MSO Statistics, 2 Apr 2026.

Storage Capacity by State (ML estimated)

Active Alerts & Government Actions — 8 April 2026

↻ Loading live alerts…

Top 5 Risks for Infrastructure & Civil Construction

Risk 1 — Critical

Cost Overruns

20–50% diesel COGS increase on active contracts without escalation clauses. A $100M earthworks project loses $8.9M at current prices.

Action: Review all active contracts for diesel escalation clauses. Lodge notice of potential claim immediately. Quantify exposure before next board meeting.

Risk 2 — Critical

Supply Disruption

Construction is Tier 4 under the National Fuel Security Plan. Defence, health, agriculture, and freight are prioritised. Spot-market exposure only in a rationing event.

Action: Establish direct Ampol/Viva contracts now. Consider on-site storage — IBCs or fixed tanks for 7–14 days buffer stock on critical sites.

Risk 3 — High

Supply Chain Cascade

Asphalt (bitumen-based), concrete transport, and steel freight all escalate in tandem — estimated 12–18% total project cost impact when diesel exceeds 300 cpl.

Action: Re-price subcontractor packages for heavy haulage and paving. Issue early variation notices. Update program contingency immediately.

Risk 4 — High

Contract Claims

Price increases do not constitute force majeure under Australian law. GC21, AS4300, and NEC3 contracts typically lack diesel escalation clauses.

Action: Engage commercial/legal teams now. Pre-notification under AS4300 cl.42 or NEC3 cl.61.3 must be issued before costs are incurred.

Risk 5 — Moderate

Excise Cliff

Fuel excise cut expires 30 Jun 2026. Without extension, an overnight +26.3 cpl spike hits project diesel budgets immediately.

Action: Model Q3 2026 cash flows with and without excise extension. Consider fixed-price contracts through June to limit exposure.

Sources:ACCC • ACCC 3 Apr 2026 • AIP • AIP Terminal Gate Price • AIP Terminal Gate Price (updated 3 Apr 2026) • AIP TGP Data • AIP TGP Historical • AIS Marine Traffic • Al Jazeera • Ampol/Viva Energy Annual Reports • Australian Industry Group • Australian Law (Force Majeure) • BADSP Program • C&I Analytical Model • C&I Internal Analysis • C&I Internal Model • CBS News • CBS News (Krugman forecast) • CNBC • CNN • DCCEEW • DCCEEW Australia Fuel Security • DCCEEW Excise Data • DCCEEW MSO Statistics • DCCEEW MSO Stats (2 Apr 2026) • EIA • EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 7 Apr 2026 • EIA STEO 7 Apr 2026 • Energy Minister Bowen • Energy Minister Bowen 5 Apr 2026 • energy.gov.au • FuelCheck NSW • FuelWatch WA • GlobalPetrolPrices.com • GlobalPetrolPrices.com 30 Mar 2026 • IEA • IEA 2026 • LSEG Shipping Data • MCA Accountants • NBC News • NPR • NRMA • NRMA Weekly • NRMA Weekly Report • PM&C National Fuel Security Plan (1 Apr 2026) • Project Budgets (Public) • SmartCompany • The Conversation • The Conversation 3 Apr 2026 • Treasury • Wikipedia 2026 Hormuz Crisis • Yahoo Finance

War Intelligence & Strait of Hormuz

Real-time conflict briefing · Sources: CNN, NPR, CNBC, Al Jazeera, NBC News · 7 April 2026

Sources: CNN • NPR • CNBC • NBC News • CBS News • Al Jazeera • Wikipedia 2026 Hormuz Crisis • EIA STEO 7 Apr 2026

DAY 37 OF US-IRAN WAR

Strait of Hormuz Status

🔒 EFFECTIVELY BLOCKED

~20%

of world oil trade blocked

Current situation: US-Israel military strikes on Iran began 28 Feb 2026. IRGC effectively halted shipping. Iran's parliament passed toll legislation. 21 confirmed attacks on merchant ships as of 12 Mar. Trump set 8PM EST Tuesday (8 Apr) deadline for Iran to reopen or face strikes on power plants and bridges. Iran rejected the ceasefire proposal as "not good enough." Diplomatic talks ongoing through Pakistan, Oman, Egypt, Qatar. UK hosting virtual summit Thursday. Brent crude trading $106.89–$111.68/bbl today. Impact on Australia: 70–80% of our refined fuel travels via Asian refineries reliant on Middle Eastern crude through this chokepoint.

Breaking News — Updated Every Hour

↻ Loading live Hormuz intelligence…

Hormuz Crisis — Key Statistics

Conflict start	28 Feb 2026 (Day 37)
Trigger event	US-Israel op. "Epic Fury"
Attacks on merchant ships	21 confirmed (to 12 Mar)
Brent crude (today)	USD $110.05/bbl
Brent 52-week high	USD $119.50/bbl
WTI crude (today)	USD $113.42/bbl
Total deaths (Middle East)	3,400+
US service members wounded	365
Trump deadline	Tue 8 Apr, 8PM EST
Hormuz oil transit share	~20% of world oil trade
Australia's indirect exposure	70–80% of refined fuel
Tankers cancelled/deferred	6 of 81 expected
Iran toll legislation	Passed by parliament

Negotiation Pathways — Probability Assessment

Deal before Tuesday deadline

15%

Deal within 2–4 weeks

35%

Partial reopening (tolls)

30%

Prolonged closure 2–6 months

45%

Escalation to infrastructure strikes

55%

Bab al-Mandab second closure

25%

C&I analytical assessment based on live news sentiment + public intelligence. Probabilities sum to >100% as scenarios overlap. Not financial advice.

Oil Price Impact Scenarios

Australia Fuel Shortage Risk Predictor

State-by-state analysis · Days to critical threshold · April 7, 2026

Sources: DCCEEW • ACCC 3 Apr 2026 • The Conversation • Australian Industry Group • C&I Analytical Model

⚠ HIGH RISK — REGIONAL AREAS CRITICAL

National Shortage Risk Index

7.4 / 10

HIGH RISK

Index combines: reserve levels (29d vs 90d target), inbound tanker pipeline, Hormuz status, regional distribution, demand surge, and government countermeasures. Source: C&I analytical model, Apr 2026.

Days to Critical Threshold by Fuel Type

Critical threshold = 7 days onshore supply. At current consumption without new inbound arrivals, diesel reaches this level in 16–22 days. Tankers arriving this month prevent this under base case.

Key Shortage Triggers to Monitor

Hormuz escalation tonight — If Trump strikes Iranian infrastructure, expect tanker flight risk, war-risk insurance surge, immediate supply cancellations. Watch: 8PM EST Tuesday deadline.

Excise cut expiry 30 Jun — Overnight +26.3 cpl if not extended. Budget announcement due May 2026. Demand spike likely before expiry.

Beyond-April tanker visibility — The Conversation reports no fuel shipments visible beyond April 14 in current shipping data. Departure data typically emerges 1–2 weeks ahead.

Panic buying resurgence — In early Mar, demand doubled within 10 days. Any new Hormuz escalation or media coverage could trigger repeat behaviour.

Independent retailer rationing — Non-contracted buyers (400+ stations) remain vulnerable to spot market dynamics. Large projects sourcing via retail exposed.

State-by-State Shortage Risk Assessment — April 7, 2026

State / Territory	Est. Reserve (days)	Storage Capacity	Key Terminals	Main Risk Factor	Days to Critical	Risk Level
Northern Territory	~10–14d	~50 ML	Darwin (Vopak)	100% road-delivered, 1,000km+ from terminals, remote communities	<10 days	CRITICAL
Western Australia	~18–22d	~500 ML	Kwinana (BP)	Geographically isolated state, single supply corridor, mining demand	15–20 days	VERY HIGH
Regional NSW	~22–28d	~900 ML (state)	Port Botany, Silverwater	107+ stations ran dry Mar 2026; independent retailer dependency	20–28 days	HIGH
Queensland (Regional)	~22–28d	~600 ML	Lytton (Ampol refinery)	Cyclone risk, distance from Lytton, agriculture + mining mix	20–28 days	HIGH
South Australia (Rural)	~24–30d	~250 ML	Birkenhead (77 ML)	Birkenhead sole major hub; vast geographic spread	22–30 days	HIGH
Victoria	~28–35d	~800 ML	Geelong refinery, Altona	Geelong refinery subsidy expires 2028; good road infrastructure	25–35 days	ELEVATED
Sydney Metro / NSW	~30–36d	~900 ML	Port Botany (multiple ops)	Multiple terminals; competitive market; high absolute demand	28–36 days	MODERATE

Shortage Probability by Scenario — Next 60 Days

What a Fuel Shortage Means for C&I Projects

Project shutdowns — Remote and regional projects (Inland Rail, Snowy 2.0, Bruce Highway) face work stoppages if diesel supply from regional distributors is rationed. Government projects with direct Ampol/Viva contracts better protected.

Force majeure activation — Physical supply unavailability (not price) may trigger force majeure. Contractual review required NOW. Australian courts interpret force majeure narrowly — pre-notification is critical.

Labour disputes — Trucking and plant operators may refuse to work if fuel unavailable or unaffordable. CFMEU watching developments. Cascading shutdown risk on earthworks-heavy sites.

Supply chain breakdown — Asphalt plant closures (bitumen requires diesel for heating), concrete batching disruption, aggregate haulage reduction all compound project delays beyond the direct diesel shortage.

Government priority access — Under Fuel Security Act 2021, Energy Minister can declare national emergency granting direct control over industry stocks. This could prioritise critical infrastructure projects but has not been invoked.

Live Outage Map & Price Intelligence

Station outages · Terminal locations · Regional price intelligence · Sources: FuelCheck NSW, FuelWatch WA, DCCEEW

Sources: FuelCheck NSW (live) • FuelWatch WA • DCCEEW MSO • NRMA Weekly • GlobalPetrolPrices.com

400+ Stations Without Diesel

Station out of diesel

Low stock (<24h)

Terminal / Refinery

Supply adequate

Click markers for details

Sydney Diesel LIVE

— cpl

NSW FuelCheck API

National Avg EST.

— cpl

Sydney base + state differentials

Darwin / NT CRITICAL

— cpl

Isolation premium ~+28 cpl

Diesel Price by City — Loading live data…

City / Region	CPL (Diesel)	vs World Avg	Source	Status
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Sydney is live from NSW FuelCheck API (refreshes every 5 min). Other cities are calculated using historical state differentials vs Sydney. World avg = USD $1.52/L ≈ AUD 233 cpl (GlobalPetrolPrices.com, 30 Mar 2026). Australia is +25% above world average.

Live Fuel Prices — Sydney & National

Real-time from NSW FuelCheck API · Historical from AIP/NRMA · April 2026

Sources: NSW FuelCheck API (live) • AIP Terminal Gate Price • NRMA Weekly • ACCC • GlobalPetrolPrices.com

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△ Diesel (DL)

LIVE

AVG SYDNEY

—

cpl

MIN

—

cpl

MAX

—

cpl

— NSW FuelCheck API

△ Petrol (U91)

LIVE

AVG SYDNEY

—

cpl

MIN

—

cpl

MAX

—

cpl

— NSW FuelCheck API

△ Ethanol (E10)

LIVE

AVG SYDNEY

—

cpl

MIN

—

cpl

MAX

—

cpl

— NSW FuelCheck API

Diesel Prices by State — Live & Estimated

NATIONAL AVERAGE

322.1 c/L avg

LOWEST

165.0

HIGHEST

440.0

STATIONS

4,430+

New South Wales

LIVE

— c/L avg

LOWEST

—

HIGHEST

—

SPREAD

—

SERVOS

—

NSW FuelCheck API (live)

Victoria

EST

— c/L avg

LOWEST

—

HIGHEST

—

SPREAD

—

SERVOS

—

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Queensland

EST

— c/L avg

LOWEST

—

HIGHEST

—

SPREAD

—

SERVOS

—

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Western Australia

LIVE

— c/L avg

LOWEST

—

HIGHEST

—

SPREAD

—

SERVOS

—

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South Australia

EST

— c/L avg

LOWEST

—

HIGHEST

—

SPREAD

—

SERVOS

—

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Tasmania

EST

— c/L avg

LOWEST

—

HIGHEST

—

SPREAD

—

SERVOS

—

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ACT

EST

— c/L avg

LOWEST

—

HIGHEST

—

SPREAD

—

SERVOS

—

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Northern Territory

CRITICAL

— c/L avg

LOWEST

—

HIGHEST

—

SPREAD

—

SERVOS

—

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LIVE = real-time govt API · EST = AIP/ACCC estimates · Source: NSW FuelCheck, FuelWatch WA, AIP, ACCC · 8 Apr 2026

Price History — Last 4 Months (Dec 2025 – Apr 2026)

Diesel Petrol U91 E10

Key events: Excise cut 1 Apr 2026 (−26.3 cpl) • Iran crisis peak 22 Mar 2026 (Brent +50% in 2 weeks) • Current Sydney diesel 319.9 cpl avg (NSW FuelCheck, 8 Apr 2026)

Diesel History — AUD/L — Jan 2020 to Apr 2026

COVID low $1.05 (Apr 2020) → Ukraine peak $2.34 (Jun 2022) → Iran crisis $3.22 (Mar 2026) → Excise cut → Current $3.20 (Apr 2026)

Global Diesel Price Comparison — USD/L — April 2026

Australia $1.89 USD/L vs world average $1.52 USD/L (+24.3%). Source: GlobalPetrolPrices.com 30 Mar 2026.

Diesel by City — cpl — Post Excise Cut April 2026

Fuel Reserves & Storage Infrastructure

National MSO stockholding · DCCEEW Weekly Statistics · April 2026

△ IEA Non-Compliant: 32% of mandate

Published 31 Mar 2026 · Next: Sat 12 Apr

LOWEST RESERVE

DIESEL

Critical reserve countdown

21

DAYS

00

HRS

00

MIN

00

SEC

29d reported 31 Mar — 8d elapsed → ~21d remaining

Reserve Stock by Type — Sorted by Urgency

🚙

#1 — DIESEL — MOST CRITICAL

29d

+20% above MSO minimum

IEA target: 90 days

32% of IEA mandate

✈

#2 — JET FUEL

30d

+28% above MSO minimum

IEA target: 90 days

33% of IEA mandate

🚗

#3 — PETROL

39d

+100% above MSO minimum

IEA target: 90 days

43% of IEA mandate

Reserve Trend — Stock Days vs MSO Minimum (Jan–Mar 2026)

Diesel 29d +20% above min

Stock held: 29 days • MSO min: ~24 days

Jet Fuel 30d +28% above min

Stock held: 30 days • MSO min: ~24 days

Petrol 39d +100% above min

Stock held: 39 days • MSO min: ~20 days

Terminal & Storage Infrastructure

Facility	Location	Operator	Capacity	Status	Risk
Ampol Lytton Refinery	Brisbane QLD	Ampol	~10% nat.	Full capacity. Govt emergency order to 2027.	WATCH 2027
Viva Energy Geelong	Geelong VIC	Viva Energy	~10% nat.	Full capacity. Govt emergency order to 2028.	WATCH 2028
Port Botany Terminals	Sydney NSW	Ampol / Viva / BP	~300 ML	Normal ops. Major inbound tankers arriving.	OK
Kwinana Terminal	Fremantle WA	BP	~150 ML	WA geographically isolated. Single supply corridor.	HIGH RISK
Darwin / NT Terminals	Darwin NT	Vopak / Multiple	~50 ML	Critically thin. 100% road-delivered to remote.	CRITICAL

Fuel Ships — Inbound Tanker Tracker

Live AIS tracking · aisstream.io · Tankers bound for Australian ports

Sources: aisstream.io (live AIS) • Energy Minister Bowen 5 Apr 2026 • LSEG Shipping Data • AIS Marine Traffic

● Connecting… 53 Vessels En Route

Product/Diesel Tanker Crude Tanker LPG/Chemical Tanker Other Tanker AU Port Terminal

🚢 Inbound Vessels — click any row to locate on map

—

Tracked

—

En Route

—

At Port / Anchor

—

ETAs This Month

Connecting to aisstream.io — vessel list builds over ~5 minutes…

Supply Chain Risk Factors

● No domestic tanker fleet — Only G20 nation without one. Entirely dependent on foreign-flagged shipping.

● War-risk insurance surged from 0.125% to 0.2–0.4% (+240%). Large tankers face >$250K extra per voyage.

● Transit times: Singapore → Sydney 9–11 days. South Korea → Perth 14–16 days.

● US SPR crude: ~5M barrels but 30–40 days to refine + ship. Not accessible rapidly. Source: Prof. De Mello, Macquarie University.

National Fuel Security Plan — 4 Stages

Agreed by National Cabinet 30 March 2026 · Source: PM&C, DCCEEW, energy.gov.au

Sources: PM&C National Fuel Security Plan (1 Apr 2026) • DCCEEW • energy.gov.au • SmartCompany • MCA Accountants

▶ CURRENTLY: LEVEL 2 Official Plan ↗

Where Australia Sits Right Now — April 7, 2026

1

Plan & Prepare

Precautionary measures. Government & industry work together to shore up supply. Regulatory reforms for freight efficiency (longer trailers, later delivery hours). Consumers urged not to panic buy.

✓ PASSED — Completed early Mar 2026

2

Keep Australia Moving

Supply continues but localised disruptions occur. Government underwrites additional fuel cargoes. Manages MSO reserves. Redirects fuel to shortage areas. Increases monitoring. Excise cut. Heavy vehicle charge waived.

📌 WE ARE HERE — ACTIVE NOW

Active since 30 Mar 2026 · Any shift requires National Cabinet approval

3

Taking Targeted Action

Prioritise fuel for critical sectors. Nationally consistent demand reduction measures. Further MSO releases. Work-from-home encouragement. Extended freight operating hours. States may expand road usage changes. "Soft rationing."

⚠ Level 3 & 4 under consideration — may change depending on circumstances

4

Protect Critical Services

Nationally consistent allocation framework for essential users. Emergency services, utilities, life-supporting infrastructure prioritised. NSW Treasurer & WA Premier confirmed: fuel rationing at this stage. Spending caps at pump. Managed queues. Commercial activity faces tight constraints.

🚫 FORMAL RATIONING — Not yet invoked

What Level 2 Means for C&I Projects — Right Now

Fuel remains available — but at elevated prices. Projects can still operate. Independent retailers may face spot allocation gaps but integrated supply contracts (Ampol/Viva direct) are protected.

Excise cut active until 30 Jun — 26.3 cpl relief at the bowser. Heavy vehicle road user charge zero. For large fleet operators, significant cost relief. Do NOT rely on this continuing beyond 30 June.

MSO drawdown active — Government has released 762 ML from reserves. Regional prioritisation to farmers, fishers and regional communities first. Construction sites dependent on independent distributors are second in line.

If we move to Level 3 — expect work-from-home guidance, further MSO releases, voluntary demand reduction across industry. Construction sites may receive direct guidance to reduce non-essential equipment hours.

If we move to Level 4 — fuel rationing. NSW & WA premiers confirmed: spending caps at the pump, managed queue systems, priority allocation to emergency services and food supply. Construction is Tier 4 — last in queue.

Next level shift requires formal National Cabinet approval. Monitor PM announcements & DCCEEW weekly MSO reports. Source: PM&C National Fuel Security Plan, 30 Mar 2026.

Concrete Project Failure Scenarios (C&I Analysis)

TBM SPOIL HAULAGE FAILURE

Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) generate continuous spoil that must be trucked away. If diesel rationing stops haulage trucks, spoil stockpiles reach capacity within hours — TBM operations halt entirely. A single halted TBM can cost $2M+ per day in abortive costs and program delays. Projects: Metro West, North East Link, Western Harbour Tunnel.

UNDERWATER DIESEL PUMP FAILURE

Tunnelling below the water table relies on continuous diesel-powered dewatering pumps. Pump failure = rapid inundation. Even 4–6 hours of diesel interruption can flood a tunnel section, destroying months of work and creating serious safety risks. Insurance exclusions for "fuel-related" failures are untested.

ASPHALT PLANT SHUTDOWN

Asphalt plants require diesel for heating (bitumen must stay at 150–180°C). Without continuous fuel, the plant cools, bitumen solidifies, and restart requires full plant clean-out: 2–5 days downtime. Road paving programs on Bruce Highway, Inland Rail, and Olympic infrastructure at direct risk.

CAMP POWER & WATER FAILURE (REMOTE PROJECTS)

Remote linear projects (Inland Rail, Snowy 2.0, pipeline construction) rely 100% on diesel gensets for camp power, water treatment, and communications. Priority rationing means construction camps may lose power before urban areas are affected. Site evacuation costs: $500K–$2M per event.

CONCRETE BATCHING DISRUPTION

Agitator trucks must deliver concrete within 90 minutes of batching or it sets in the drum ($15K–$40K per truck write-off). Fuel shortages causing delivery delays mid-pour create structural defects, requiring costly demolition and reconstruction. Already occurring at regional projects in NSW.

Live News Feed — Fuel & Energy Crisis

All sources linked · Official government sources highlighted · Click any story to read original

Sources: CNN • NPR • CNBC • NBC News • CBS News • DCCEEW • ACCC • EIA • NRMA • The Conversation

Last checked: just now

C&I Fuel Health Check —

Depletion Forecast & Normalisation

Reserve modelling · Price trajectory · Normalisation timeline

Sources: EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook 7 Apr 2026 • IEA • C&I Analytical Model • AIP TGP Historical

Diesel Reserve Days — With / Without Inbound Tankers

Without replenishment, onshore stock reaches critical <7 day threshold within 16–22 days. The 53 confirmed tankers prevent this under base case. Beyond April 14 visibility is limited in current AIS data.

Price Forecast — AUD/L — Apr 2026 → Apr 2027

Critical date: 30 Jun 2026. Excise cut expires. Without extension: +26.3 cpl overnight spike. EIA forecasts Brent above $95/bbl for 2 months, then declining. Monitor May federal budget for extension announcement.

Normalisation Timeline — Key Milestones

7 Apr 2026 — Tonight

Trump 8PM EST deadline — highest geopolitical risk moment

Iran must reopen Strait or face strikes on power plants and bridges. Escalation could cancel additional tankers, spike Brent to $130+, and trigger further shortage in Australia within 2–3 weeks. Monitor overnight.

Apr 2026 — Now

Crisis stabilising — 53 tankers arriving, excise cut active

Panic buying subsiding. MSO drawdown active. Excise cut (-26.3 cpl) flowing through. ~400 stations still out nationally. Supply secure to mid-April under base case.

May — Jun 2026

Replenishment phase · AUD $2.50–2.80/L

Coastal terminals restocking. Regional lagging 2–4 weeks. Budget announcement on excise extension critical. Excise expires 30 Jun — +26.3 cpl spike risk if not extended.

Q3 2026 (Jul–Sep)

Partial stabilisation · AUD $2.20–2.60/L

Depends entirely on Hormuz resolution. MSO recovering. BADSP storage construction underway. EIA forecasts Brent below $80/bbl if conflict resolves.

Q4 2026 (Oct–Dec)

New elevated baseline · AUD $2.10–2.40/L

Moderate resolution assumed. AUD recovery. Refinery subsidy discussions. Elevated is the new normal — EIA forecasts ~$64/bbl Brent for 2027.

2027

New normal · AUD $1.90–2.20/L

Refinery subsidy decisions due. New BADSP storage online. Supply chains normalised — but structurally above pre-crisis levels.

2028–2030

Energy transition · AUD $1.80–2.10/L equivalent

EV penetration >25%. HVO/renewable diesel at commercial scale. New storage online. Geelong refinery subsidy decision shapes decade-long import dependency.

Infrastructure Project Exposure

Diesel cost impact · Major Australian projects · Source: C&I internal modelling, April 2026

Sources: C&I Internal Model • Project Budgets (Public) • AIP TGP Data • DCCEEW

Major Projects — Diesel Exposure at March 2026 Peak ($3.22/L)

Project	Value	State	Diesel %	Budget @$1.85	Cost @$3.22	Variance	Exposure

* Direct diesel only. Cascade (asphalt, concrete, steel, labour) = 12–18% of total project value at peak. Data: C&I internal model, AIP, DCCEEW.

Cost Impact — $100M Earthworks Project

Diesel Dependency by Project Type (% direct cost)

Price Scenarios & Global Benchmarks

Three-scenario modelling · Based on EIA, IEA, C&I analysis · April 2026

Sources: EIA STEO 7 Apr 2026 • IEA • C&I Analytical Model • CBS News (Krugman forecast)

20%

Optimistic Scenario

$1.80–2.10 AUD/L by H2 2026

Brent: $70–85/bbl · AUD: 0.68+ · EIA base scenario

Hormuz deal struck before end April. US-Iran ceasefire holds. AUD recovers. EIA forecasts $70/bbl by end 2026. Supply chains normalise 6–9 months. MSO restored. No rationing.

50%

Base Case Scenario

$2.10–2.50 AUD/L through 2026–27

Brent: $85–105/bbl · AUD: 0.63–0.67

Partial Hormuz resolution. Prolonged elevated prices. Excise expiry 30 Jun creates +26.3 cpl spike risk. Infrastructure projects face sustained 30–40% diesel cost premium vs 2025.

30%

Pessimistic Scenario

$2.80–3.80+ AUD/L 2026–2028

Brent: $110–200/bbl · AUD: <0.60 · Krugman scenario

Hormuz infrastructure strikes, Bab al-Mandab closure, full escalation. Nobel economist Krugman: "$150–$200/bbl not crazy." Formal rationing invoked. Construction projects stalled. Inflation 6%+. RBA rate hikes.

International Reserve Levels vs IEA 90-Day Mandate (April 2026)

IEA member average: 141 days. Australia at ~29 days (diesel) among lowest in developed world. Only New Zealand comparably exposed. Source: IEA, DCCEEW, EIA.

Project Fuel Cost Impact Calculator

Adjust parameters to calculate your project's diesel exposure

Sources: AIP Terminal Gate Price • C&I Internal Model • DCCEEW Excise Data • Treasury

Input Parameters

Total Project Budget (AUD)$100M

Diesel as % of Project Cost12%

Baseline Diesel Price (AUD/L)$1.85

Baseline

$12.0M

At $1.85/L

+20% Diesel

$14.4M

+$2.4M

+50% Diesel

$18.0M

+$6.0M

+74% Mar 26 Peak

$20.9M

+$8.9M

Direct diesel exposure only. With cascade effects (asphalt, concrete, steel, labour) = 12–18% of total project value at March 2026 peak.

Cost Impact Visualisation

Top 5 Strategic Recommendations — C&I April 2026

01

Immediate

Audit active contracts

Identify all contracts without fuel escalation clauses. Negotiate CPI/diesel-linked addenda on projects over $5M. GC21, AS4300 and NEC3 do NOT include these automatically.

02

Short-Term

Secure term fuel agreements

Negotiate fixed/capped rate supply with Ampol or Viva Energy wholesale divisions. Pre-purchase diesel where on-site storage permits. Direct accounts avoid spot-market rationing.

03

Medium-Term

Fuel-resilient positioning

Offer clients guaranteed cost certainty through hedging, HVO alternative fuel, and hybrid equipment. A genuine market differentiator — government clients value ESG + supply security.

04

Medium-Term

Build intelligence capability

Monitor DCCEEW MSO weekly, AIP TGP, ACCC reports, and IEA emergency actions. Trump/Hormuz news. Anticipate supply events 4–6 weeks ahead. Tonight's deadline is the next critical watch point.

05

Long-Term

Invest in HVO / renewable diesel

Drop-in replacement for diesel engines, 70–90% lower carbon intensity, price-stable alternative supply chain not linked to Hormuz. ESG + supply security value proposition for government clients.

National Fuel Security Plan — 4 Stages

Agreed by National Cabinet 30 March 2026 · Source: PM&C, DCCEEW, energy.gov.au

Sources: PM&C National Fuel Security Plan (1 Apr 2026) • DCCEEW • energy.gov.au • SmartCompany • MCA Accountants

▶ CURRENTLY: LEVEL 2 Official Plan ↗

Where Australia Sits Right Now — April 7, 2026

1

Plan & Prepare

Precautionary measures. Government & industry work together to shore up supply. Regulatory reforms for freight efficiency (longer trailers, later delivery hours). Consumers urged not to panic buy.

✓ PASSED — Completed early Mar 2026

2

Keep Australia Moving

Supply continues but localised disruptions occur. Government underwrites additional fuel cargoes. Manages MSO reserves. Redirects fuel to shortage areas. Increases monitoring. Excise cut. Heavy vehicle charge waived.

📌 WE ARE HERE — ACTIVE NOW

Active since 30 Mar 2026 · Any shift requires National Cabinet approval

3

Taking Targeted Action

Prioritise fuel for critical sectors. Nationally consistent demand reduction measures. Further MSO releases. Work-from-home encouragement. Extended freight operating hours. States may expand road usage changes. "Soft rationing."

⚠ Level 3 & 4 under consideration — may change depending on circumstances

4

Protect Critical Services

Nationally consistent allocation framework for essential users. Emergency services, utilities, life-supporting infrastructure prioritised. NSW Treasurer & WA Premier confirmed: fuel rationing at this stage. Spending caps at pump. Managed queues. Commercial activity faces tight constraints.

🚫 FORMAL RATIONING — Not yet invoked

What Level 2 Means for C&I Projects — Right Now

Fuel remains available — but at elevated prices. Projects can still operate. Independent retailers may face spot allocation gaps but integrated supply contracts (Ampol/Viva direct) are protected.

Excise cut active until 30 Jun — 26.3 cpl relief at the bowser. Heavy vehicle road user charge zero. For large fleet operators, significant cost relief. Do NOT rely on this continuing beyond 30 June.

MSO drawdown active — Government has released 762 ML from reserves. Regional prioritisation to farmers, fishers and regional communities first. Construction sites dependent on independent distributors are second in line.

If we move to Level 3 — expect work-from-home guidance, further MSO releases, voluntary demand reduction across industry. Construction sites may receive direct guidance to reduce non-essential equipment hours.

If we move to Level 4 — fuel rationing. NSW & WA premiers confirmed: spending caps at the pump, managed queue systems, priority allocation to emergency services and food supply. Construction is Tier 4 — last in queue.

Next level shift requires formal National Cabinet approval. Monitor PM announcements & DCCEEW weekly MSO reports. Source: PM&C National Fuel Security Plan, 30 Mar 2026.

Concrete Project Failure Scenarios (C&I Analysis)

TBM SPOIL HAULAGE FAILURE

Tunnel Boring Machines (TBMs) generate continuous spoil that must be trucked away. If diesel rationing stops haulage trucks, spoil stockpiles reach capacity within hours — TBM operations halt entirely. A single halted TBM can cost $2M+ per day in abortive costs and program delays. Projects: Metro West, North East Link, Western Harbour Tunnel.

UNDERWATER DIESEL PUMP FAILURE

Tunnelling below the water table relies on continuous diesel-powered dewatering pumps. Pump failure = rapid inundation. Even 4–6 hours of diesel interruption can flood a tunnel section, destroying months of work and creating serious safety risks. Insurance exclusions for "fuel-related" failures are untested.

ASPHALT PLANT SHUTDOWN

Asphalt plants require diesel for heating (bitumen must stay at 150–180°C). Without continuous fuel, the plant cools, bitumen solidifies, and restart requires full plant clean-out: 2–5 days downtime. Road paving programs on Bruce Highway, Inland Rail, and Olympic infrastructure at direct risk.

CAMP POWER & WATER FAILURE (REMOTE PROJECTS)

Remote linear projects (Inland Rail, Snowy 2.0, pipeline construction) rely 100% on diesel gensets for camp power, water treatment, and communications. Priority rationing means construction camps may lose power before urban areas are affected. Site evacuation costs: $500K–$2M per event.

CONCRETE BATCHING DISRUPTION

Agitator trucks must deliver concrete within 90 minutes of batching or it sets in the drum ($15K–$40K per truck write-off). Fuel shortages causing delivery delays mid-pour create structural defects, requiring costly demolition and reconstruction. Already occurring at regional projects in NSW.

Live News Feed — Fuel & Energy Crisis

All sources linked · Official government sources highlighted · Click any story to read original

Sources: CNN • NPR • CNBC • NBC News • CBS News • DCCEEW • ACCC • EIA • NRMA • The Conversation

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C&I Fuel Health Check —